A commanding mandate and a weakened federal government give the Quebec premier a strong hand
MONTREAL — There’s an overused cliche in professional sports that truly elite teams win even when they are having bad days. It may not always be pretty, but they are still able to beat inferior opponents. This could also apply to François Legault’s Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which won another crushing electoral victory and expanded its majority to 90 seats in the 125 seat Quebec National Assembly, despite an election campaign in which Legault and CAQ candidates stumbled at times. Legault is now perhaps the most powerful politician in the country and has managed to completely upend and reorient Quebec’s political landscape. But as dominant as Legault now is, challenges loom on the horizon. How Legault chooses to address these challenges, and what he chooses to do with this power will be one of the major stories in Canadian politics over the next four years.
Admirers and critics alike agree that the key to the CAQ’s fortunes is that under Legault, the party has found the “sweet spot” in Quebec’s distinct political landscape. He has managed to champion a strong cultural nationalism and desire to protect Quebec’s distinct identity while also moving the nationalist question away from a push for outright sovereignty. He has also managed to sell himself and the CAQ as a party that cares about Quebec’s economy and wants to make Quebec wealthier.
In wedding nationalism with perceived economic competence, Legault has positioned the CAQ right in the middle of Quebec’s political landscape and has scrambled old divides. Older legacy parties like the Quebec Liberal Party and Parti Québécois have been left behind. Both retain seats in the legislature, and the Liberals will form the Official Opposition, but they are both a shadow of their former selves. The PQ especially seem on the verge of extinction despite the relatively strong campaign of their young leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon. No longer do voters have to essentially choose between the nation and the economy, they can have their cake and eat it too.
Legault undoubtedly benefited immensely from vote splitting in the first-past-the-post system that he had once promised to change (a promise he backtracked on after becoming premier). But there’s no denying that his victory gives him a uniquely powerful mandate, one that is enhanced by current federal political dynamics.
The Liberal government in Ottawa is getting long in the tooth and faces its most serious challenge since 2015 in newly minted Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. If the Liberals are going to have any hope at maintaining power in the next election, whenever that is, their path to victory is going to run through Quebec as it always does. Given Legault’s popularity, Trudeau is going to be even more reluctant than he already is to pick fights with Quebec, whether over jurisdiction or language rights.
Combined with his strong mandate, this gives Legault even more opportunity to push for whatever demands or reforms he wants. As for what the next Ottawa-Quebec battle could be, immigration, in particular, came up frequently in the campaign. Quebec’s immigration minister, Jean Boulet, generated criticism and controversy for suggesting that “80 per cent of immigrants go to Montreal, don’t work, don’t speak French or don’t accept the values of Quebec society.” He apologized, and Legault distanced himself from the comment, but the premier also said during the campaign that raising immigration levels would be “suicidal” for the survival of the French language in the province, something that motivates large portions of the CAQ’s base.
Quebec has much more control over immigration than other provinces, powers it wrestled from the federal government, and Legault and the CAQ have consistently pushed for lower levels of immigration. Still, the premier has openly said he wants even more power over immigration, and has suggested holding a referendum on the matter.
This is good politics in Quebec, but it also presents a serious challenge to the CAQ’s electoral dominance in the medium and long term. The CAQ have succeeded by wedding their cultural nationalism with a pro-growth economic message, but like the rest of Canada, Quebec faces serious labour shortages that will hamper growth and competitiveness in the long run if not addressed. In Quebec these problems are especially challenging given the average age in the province is higher than the Canadian average. This puts pressure not just on labour markets, but on public services as well.
Business and corporate voices have been vocal about asking for increased immigration numbers to address this challenge, but Legault has thus far resisted and realizes that anxieties about French makes this a dangerous issue for him. As labour shortages grow, voters may be forced to choose between cultural nationalism and economic growth and prosperity.
As some of the smarter Quebec nationalist commentators, like Mathieu Bock-Côté, have said, even if Quebec does reduce its own immigration numbers, if the rest of Canada maintains high levels of immigration, Quebec will eventually become a smaller and smaller force within Confederation as it shrinks relative to the rest of the country. Quebec separatism is, for now, dormant. But if these kinds of arguments find widespread traction it is not impossible to imagine the sovereigntist movement in Quebec capitalizing in some way.
Legault may see political benefit in picking fights with Ottawa to keep his voter coalition happy, and by deflecting blame, it would mean he isn’t forced to choose between further reducing immigration numbers or damaging the Quebec economy. What Legault does in the next few years may have long term ramifications for not just the future of Quebec, but the future of Canada as well.
Legault is a shrewd politician and his victory tonight is a signal of the dominance and success that he has achieved. But beneath the surface are potential challenges and contradictions that may mean Quebec’s political landscape is not nearly as stable as it seems. One thing’s for certain, Legault is now perhaps the most powerful political leader in Canada.
National Post
