By LINDA GYULAI - The jury is still out on whether Louise Harel will hurt or help Vision Montreal party's chances of winning power at city hall in the Nov. 1 municipal election.
But as Montrealers take in yesterday's announcement that Vision Montreal leader Benoit Labonté is stepping aside to allow Harel, the former Parti Québécois cabinet minister who oversaw the forced municipal mergers, to run as his party's mayoral candidate against Mayor Gérald Tremblay, certain effects are already being felt.
For starters, the other political parties were thrown into disarray, starting with Tremblay's ruling Union Montreal party. Tremblay's cakewalk to a third straight term is suddenly no longer presumed, even by some of those most loyal to him.
"Some are saying, 'Okay, the campaign's begun'," said one Union Montreal member who did not want to be named, adding that Harel's presence has a certain "gravitas" that Labonté's candidacy lacked.
Vision Montreal will hold a leadership convention as soon as possible to confirm Harel's candidacy, Labonté said. He would become chairperson of the city executive committee if Harel wins the mayoralty and he wins re-election to council.
The political marriage of Labonté, a former aide to Paul Martin while he was federal Liberal finance minister, and Harel gives serious competition to Union Montreal's claim as the "rainbow coalition."
Meanwhile, Projet Montréal, led by city councillor Richard Bergeron, will have to decide whether to stay in the race as the third party or accept Harel's invitation to form an alliance with Vision Montreal to beat Tremblay.
Another effect of Harel's announcement is to bring forward what will likely be the central issue of the impending election campaign: Montreal's governance structure.
Harel yesterday reiterated her criticism of the Liberal government's decision to give greater powers to the city's 19 boroughs. The move has turned Montreal into a series of "quasi-cities," Harel said.
A debate about governance is inevitable because city politics have become too complex and cumbersome, said former Montreal city councillor Robert Keaton, who retired this week from teaching politics at Dawson College.
"One of the most important things to look for in either party right now is the proposal they're going to put forward for the improvement of the structure and the political process of Montreal," he said.
As for the disarray among the political parties, Keaton said he expects the race to whittle down to a two-way competition between Tremblay and Harel after the dust settles.
That may be, but where various council candidates will scurry remains to be seen.
"I find this marriage of convenience difficult to understand," said city executive committee member André Lavallée, a councillor in Tremblay's Union Montreal and Harel's former assistant chief of staff when she was municipal affairs minister.
Judging by Lavallée's reaction, the PQ elements in Tremblay's Union Montreal and Bergeron's Projet Montréal will find it hard to reconcile their loyalty to Harel and their disdain for Vision Montreal.
Indeed, Harel's strong public profile is matched by the equally strong legacy of Vision Montreal's founder, former mayor Pierre Bourque.
Harel and Vision Montreal have stood for different values, Lavallée said.
And so the wedding of Harel and Vision Montreal opens up the possibility that two distinct election campaigns - with distinct election results - will occur at the mayoral and councillor levels.
The mayor is elected city-wide, while councillors are elected by district. A single voter elects both.
Traditionally, Montrealers pick a mayoral candidate and councillor from the same party. But this time, Harel's baggage could hurt her chances of mayoral victory in federalist areas, such as in the boroughs of Ahuntsic-Cartierville and LaSalle, even though Vision Montreal scored recent local by-election victories.
On the other hand, Vision Montreal's council candidates could suffer in areas where Bourque was unpopular, such as Plateau Mont Royal, even if Harel's mayoral bid should expect support there from her former provincial party's machine.
Despite the turmoil Harel's announcement is causing for the parties, Keaton sees her entry in the municipal ring as a good thing for Montrealers.
Competition from Harel will force Tremblay's team to "sharpen up" its political program, he said.
"What she could bring to Montreal to improve things, I'm not terribly sure. We have to wait and see what her program is, what ideas she has to bring forward," Keaton said.
"But I think it's a healthy sign that there's enough interest of qualified people and experienced people to run for the mayorship.
"At least we'll have a good choice."
lgyulai@thegazette.canwest.com