Talk about peaking early. For Premier Jean Charest, last year began with a new four-year term as head of a majority government, and then went steadily downhill.
A year of recession and losses at the Caisse de dépôt ended with Charest being hounded by demands for a public inquiry into alleged corruption in the construction industry and with his government's satisfaction rating at only 34 per cent.
And this year, things might get even worse.
The new year begins with Charest's government facing problems in three key areas: political morality, public finances, and identity.
On the morality issue, Charest continues to resist the demands for an inquiry that might result in prolonged embarrassment for the government, in the apparent hope that the demands will die out in the new year if there are no new revelations to fuel them.
On the question of the inquiry alone, Charest might have calculated correctly.
More than five weeks after the Parti Québécois launched a petition in favour of an inquiry on the National Assembly website and urged its supporters to sign it, the petition had received fewer than 22,000 signatures as of midday yesterday.
In comparison, the Facebook group Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament had more than 152,000 members, 11 days after it was launched.
But even if there are no new allegations of corruption in the construction industry, the opposition parties will have other opportunities to raise the political-morality issue when the Assembly resumes sitting Feb. 9.
A proposed code of ethics for MNAs and bills proposing stricter rules for political financing and awarding municipal contracts, which the government was forced to introduce in response to disclosures and allegations last year, are still on the Assembly's order paper.
The second major issue facing the government this year, public finances, will have to be addressed in the annual budget to be presented before the start of the next fiscal year in April and in public-sector labour negotiations.
We already know that the budget will contain both spending cuts and revenue increases, most likely in hydro rates and fees. The government has already announced cutbacks of $869 million and revenue increases of $1.1 billion in the next budget.
Where the cutbacks will be made, and where $450 million of the increases will come from, remain to be identified, though the government has already ruled out income-tax increases.
This will be only the first of four consecutive austerity budgets honouring the government's promise to the credit-rating agencies to eliminate its annual deficit.
And since salaries and employer contributions account for 55 per cent of what the government spends on its programs, the government and its employees are unlikely to agree on new labour contracts replacing the ones that expire March 31.
The third major issue, and one that seems to be especially problematic for Liberal governments, is identity.
This time, Charest's government is facing a convergence of two issues: "reasonable accommodation" of minority religions in public service and language.
The number and prominence of stories and complaints in the media about both have been increasing, and polls show Quebecers are concerned about both.
The government has been forced to legislate on language by the recent Supreme Court's ruling striking down Bill 104 on admission to English schools.
And PQ leader Pauline Marois has positioned the party to take advantage of the identity issue with a recent conference on identity followed by presentation of a bill on "fundamental values."
For Charest, the only consolation might be that the next elections aren't due for another three years.
dmacpher@thegazette.canwest.com