As this federal election campaign slips deeper into uncertainty, an awful realization dawns in the east.
The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will never be built unless a majority government is elected.
After Justin Trudeau’s blackface fiasco, polls show the Liberals and Conservatives are virtually tied, making a minority very likely.
To govern, either big-party leader would have to strike a deal with Jagmeet Singh’s NDP and, possibly, Elizabeth May’s Greens.
Singh and May would both demand cancellation of the pipeline as a condition of supporting a minority.
Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives couldn’t consider support from the NDP unless the condition were dropped. Singh couldn’t dream of dropping it.
Not that they could live with each other under any circumstances. We can forget that pairing.
The pipeline’s future — or lack of it — could well come down to a Trudeau minority propped up by these ardent anti-pipeline parties.
After the Liberals gave the pipeline a second approval in February, Singh said:
“Once again, I am calling on the Trudeau government to abandon the Trans Mountain expansion, fully overhaul the NEB review process, and finally live up to its promises that its most important relationship is its relationship with Indigenous Peoples.”
And on Monday, Singh told the CBC’s Vassy Kapelos that any province objecting to any national project crossing its territory should have an absolute veto. If that happens, we might as well sell Canada for parts.
May, meanwhile, says the Greens would veto any pipeline, large or small, now and forever.
Anybody who doesn’t think the Liberals would slide away from the pipeline, even after spending $4.5 billion to buy it, fails to grasp their determination to stay in power.
Pipeline support in the Liberal caucus is uneasy enough even now. With a clutch of new MPs, it could be even weaker.
The conflict could perhaps be fudged in some cynical fashion. For instance, a Liberal minority government could say that to accommodate NDP concerns, the project would have to meet a variety of new, impossible conditions.
The meaning would be clear — no pipeline expansion in the term of yet another government, and probably never.
The implications are dire both for Alberta’s economy and national unity. Anger would reach levels undreamed of in this province.
But Scheer and the Conservatives have new hope. They know, just as the Liberals do, that Trudeau is only one scandal away from handing them a solid victory.
His trust level has fallen. Wary forgiveness seems widespread, but more trouble could shatter it overnight.
On Monday, Premier Jason Kenney painted Trudeau as a national embarrassment.
“I think it’s becoming more clear by the day that we need a new government and a new prime minister,” he told reporters.
“We need a prime minister of whom we can be proud, a prime minister who understands the life of ordinary Canadians, like Andrew Scheer, who grew up in a family where they didn’t own a car, in a modest townhouse.”
Kenney was obviously playing on Trudeau’s own admission that his “layers of privilege” as the son of a former prime minister contributed to his “massive blind spot.”
Kenney called Scheer “a person of profound respect who would never embarrass this country either here or abroad.”
“I found the revelations about the prime minister’s penchant for blackface frankly bizarre,” the premier continued.
“He is trying to blame this on society — that we must learn from this.
“No, prime minister, this is about you, not us. I’m 51 years old, I’ve hardly lived a sheltered existence, and I’ve never seen anybody ever do that.”
Of course, Alberta Liberals can argue that with another majority they will build Trans Mountain.
But they’ve had a solid majority for four years now, and the hurdles keep popping up.
The project faces six new court challenges. B.C. has been told to review its provincial agreement. The opposition seems more strident every day.
Now the final, project-killing threat — an NDP-backed minority — grows ever more likely.
Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.
Twitter: @DonBraid
Facebook: Don Braid Politics
