Tasha Kheiriddin - They say trouble come in threes – but apparently, for Quebec Premier Jean Charest, it comes in fours. The past week has seen a plague of problems for the Liberal leader, prompting renewed speculation about his political future.
Yesterday, a Leger poll showed the Parti Quebecois leading the provincial Liberals by four points, 37% to 34%. Though this represents a narrowing of the gap between the two parties (previous polls had the PQ leading by 6 points in October, and 10 points in August), it is still worrisome. The PQ leads the Liberals in every region of the province except Montreal. Furthermore, 78 % of respondents describe themselves as dissatisfied with the Charest government, a proportion that has been increasing since the beginning of the year.
The poll followed reports that an online petition calling for the Premier’s resignation “crashed” this week, due presumably to a stampede of angry voters eager to add their names. According to CBC radio as this post is being published, the petition has gone viral and garnered 46,000 signatures in 24 hours. The petition was put up on the National Assembly website by Amir Khadir, the sole MNA of the far-left Quebec Solidaire party. It was created by the Mouvement Citoyen National du Quebec, a group formed in opposition to the Liberals’ 2010 budget.
The petition gives three grounds for demanding Mr. Charest step aside:the Premier’s continuing refusal to launch a full inquiry into accusations of corruption in the construction industry, which are allegedly connected to Liberal Party fundraising efforts; his refusal to call a moratorium on shale gas exploration; and his refusal to “negotiate” the terms of the 2010 budget with the Quebec public. It will remain online for three more months.
The petition news broke at the same time as a demand by the province’s Union of Municipalities for an inquiry into the construction controversy. The union expressed concerns about corruption tainting municipal offices across the province. Its voice joins a chorus of similar calls which have been building since last year, and which exploded after former Justice Minister Marc Bellemare went public in March with his accusations that the Premier sanctioned “judge-buying” by Liberal donors from the construction industry.
Mr. Bellemare, is of, course, currently on the receiving end of a lawsuit by Mr. Charest for defamation (and is also countersuing the Premier). He may soon have company: Mr. Charest is now threatening to sue Gerard Deltell, the leader of the ADQ, for remarks made over the weekend in which Mr. Deltell referred to the Premier as “godfather” of the Liberal party. Strange, because politicians should expect to be fair game – and to take a punch. (Perhaps in light of the recent demise of the boss of the Rizzuto crime family in Montreal, the Premier’s skin is thinner than usual?)
Of course, Mr. Charest has no one but himself to blame for this state of affairs. He had ample opportunity to nip the construction scandal in the bud by calling an inquiry into the entire industry, as opposed to narrowly focusing on the judge-buying aspect. He had the chance to trim the size of the state since he came to power in 2003, which he promised and failed to do. He had the chance to shore up the province’s finances and curb the growth of its massive debt, which hasn’t happened either.
So what to do now? Mr. Charest’s government is due to face the voters in 2012. A Leger poll in August - which found that 57% of respondents thought the Premier should resign – found that he currently has no clear successor. Save for Denis Coderre and Philippe Couillard, who garnered 11 and 10% support, respectively, all potential candidates polled in the single digits. The real winner was “I don’t know”, at 31%.
Politics, like anything else, abhors a vacuum. In early October, another public opinion survey found that an unnamed, hypothetical centre-right party led by former PQ Minister François Legault would get 42 % of the vote. Subsequently, the right-of-centre movement Réseau Liberté Québec held an inaugural conference attracting 450 paying guests in Quebec City, and the ADQ has ramped up its rhetoric in the hopes of cashing in on public discontent.
With the departure of Gordon Campbell in B.C., the trouncing of Shawn Graham in New Brunswick, and the general anti-incumbency mood prevailing in politics these days, Mr. Charest would be wise to reflect on whether it is in his and his party’s best interest that he run again. The art of the graceful exit is something most politicians do not master: even great leaders, such as Margaret Thatcher, often don’t know when to go, and are inevitably pushed out by either their party or the electorate.
One thing is certain: Mr. Charest would leave a stronger legacy by paving the way for a successful heir, than by staying in power and taking the ship down with him. The question is, will he do it in time – or let ego get in the way? The choice belongs to him alone, but the consequences will be borne by all Quebecers.