On Quebec politics I am here to tell you that the question of Quebec's political future is by no means settled. There are many reasons to think that events may begin moving quite quickly and that Quebecers will be making a decision on their political status for the third time.
A sovereign Quebec will be a win-win outcome for Quebecers, Canada, the U.S. and the world--for everyone except those who are nostalgic for a Canadian dream that no longer exists in reality.
As you are probably aware, Quebec is a full-fledged nation. The vast majority of the political class in Quebec--the left, the right, the federalists and the sovereignists--agree on this as a starting point.
This is why the House of Commons recognized Quebec as a nation in 2006. Refusing to recognize this plain fact would have had disastrous consequences for all the federal political parties at the polls in Quebec.
There is a strong political movement to make Quebec a sovereign country, free to levy its own taxes, make its own laws and conduct its own international relations. At the same time, there are still many Quebecers who remain attached to Canada, and so public opinion is virtually evenly split between sovereignists and federalists.
Since 2003, Quebec has had a Liberal government led by Jean Charest, a former leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and staunch federalist. It is in the current government's interest to play down any conflicts that arise between Ottawa and Quebec City or between Canada and Quebec, but that cannot make them disappear.
Furthermore, Premier Charest's government is embarking on its third term of office with record levels of public dissatisfaction, as poll after poll has shown.
His government is beset by problems and the more it struggles, the deeper it sinks. It's as though it were trapped in quicksand.
Meanwhile, the Parti Quebecois has a new leader in Pauline Marois. She is a strong leader with new ideas, backed by a dynamic team of members of the National Assembly and a thriving organization.
All the polls taken in recent months indicate that if there were a general election in Quebec, the Parti Quebecois would form the government with a solid majority. So there is a strong probability that the Parti Quebecois will come to power again in Quebec in the next election, which must be called no later than 2013.
The Parti Quebecois' core objective is Quebec sovereignty, and until Quebec is ready Ms. Marois intends to lead a government that is prepared to confront the federal government on the issues that matter to Quebec.
On federal politics There has been a minority Conservative government in Ottawa since 2006. And it is a minority government only because Quebec has stopped the Conservatives at the gate.
If you take Quebec out of the equation, Stephen Harper had a comfortable majority of 16 seats in rest of Canada. In Quebec, the Tories won only 10 seats out of 75.
Since the last elections in 2008, the polls have indicated that public opinion has been very stable. If elections were held tomorrow, the Bloc would keep the majority of seats in Quebec and the Conservatives would stay in power, with or without a majority....
Canadian public opinion has hardened considerably towards Quebec over the last 20 years.
A large majority of Canadians are opposed to any compromise on matters of language, culture, immigration, public finance, international relations or even respect for Quebec's constitutional jurisdictions. In fact, 61% of Canadians refuse even to contemplate negotiations to reach a constitutional agreement with Quebec.