News that the NDP’s interim leader was, until recently, a card-carrying member of the Bloc Québécois reinforces a new and troubling truth: Quebec’s voice is weaker in Ottawa today than at any time in the past half-century – which is bad for Quebec and dangerous for the country.
The fading of Quebec in federal politics is not a temporary event. It has been going on for years and will continue for years to come.
If the federalist answer to Quebec separatism is to enmesh Quebec within the federal fabric, that answer is failing.
Unless and until Jack Layton either returns or retires, Nycole Turmel, former separatist supporter, is the leader of the NDP, including its 59 Quebec MPs, almost all of them rookies. This NDP caucus is the principal voice of French Canada in the House of Commons. The province is virtually silent within the governing Conservative caucus, which has just five Quebec MPs.
The federal election revealed that it is indeed possible for a party to form a majority government without Quebec’s support. But it revealed much more.
Ontario is now a Pacific province. Its major cities have large Asian-Canadian populations; India and China matter far, far more to its economic future than Britain or France; its voters vote the same way as westerners.
The days when elites in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal shaped the national agenda are well and truly past. The funeral was held May 2. The new consensus is between Ontario and the West. Quebec is outside that consensus.
This is an enormous change. For nearly 40 years, from Pierre Trudeau to Paul Martin, every elected prime minister but one was from Quebec. (The exception was Joe Clark’s government, which fell after just six months.) But in 1993, Quebeckers chose the Bloc to serve as their voice in Ottawa. Effectively, they left government and joined the opposition. In May, the province repudiated the separatists and embraced socially democratic federalists. But as Quebeckers experiment with first one opposition party and then another, their influence steadily wanes.
It’s not just about politics. Demographics also plays a role. Because Quebec has a low birth rate and brings in relatively few immigrants – at least compared with Ontario and British Columbia on a per capita basis – its share of the national population has steadily declined, from 29 per cent in 1961 to 23 per cent today. The Conservatives will introduce legislation this fall reapportioning the Commons to give Ontario, B.C. and Alberta their proper share of seats, further diluting the French fact in Parliament.
The national agenda has changed as well. The debt crisis of the 1990s drove the federal government away from an emphasis on greater social justice, a core Quebec value, and toward fiscal conservatism. So the federal government’s priorities don’t match Quebec’s priorities.
Finally, the principle of horizontal fiscal transfers is in jeopardy. Queen’s Park, for example, has made it clear that Ontario, with its manufacturing sector turning into a rust belt, can no longer afford to send money beyond its borders. Ontario is now the second-largest recipient of equalization payments, leaving relatively less federal largesse for Quebec.
With the province lacking a strong voice in government, with its share of the national population and economy declining and with the subsidy tap in danger of being shut off, the importance of Canada to Quebec and Quebec to Canada gets steadily harder to defend.
All this could change. The NDP could become an effective champion of Quebec’s interests and perhaps, one day, the government of the land. The next prime minister – Conservative, NDP or Liberal – could as easily come from Montreal as from Calgary.
On the other hand, perhaps the next prime minister will be the first since Lester Pearson unable to speak fluent French. Maybe her second language will be Mandarin.
If so, then the next time Quebeckers ask why they’re a part of this country, what will the rest of us tell them?