Polly’s predicted outcome of the next Canadian federal election. Polly sees a 1.7% chance of a Liberal majority, a 45.1% chance of a Liberal minority, a 47.6% chance of a Conservative minority, a 2.9% chance of a Conservative majority, and a 1.7% chance of a Liberal-Conservative tie. Above is the average seat counts, with the lower and upper limits at the 95% confidence interval, as well as the seat distribution by geographic region. Each dot represents one seat (placement within the region is arranged by party, not the riding’s geographic location). Parties are shown when they have a greater than 25% chance of winning a seat; when multiple parties meet that criteria in a riding, the riding is considered a “swing” riding and shows all the competing parties’ colours. Updated at 06:00