Steven Morris - Residents of Wales could be almost 40% richer if their homeland had become an independent nation within the European Union 20 years ago, a report claims.
The study, commissioned by the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru and carried out by a former Plaid MP, claims Wales could have been more productive than the UK as a whole.
Plaid says the report suggests that a key argument against Wales becoming independent – that it would struggle economically – does not stack up.
The research was led by the former Plaid MP Adam Price, now a research fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School's Centre for International Development in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Titled the Flotilla Effect, the report looks at what has been achieved by small independent EU nations and what an independent Wales could achieve.
The key findings include:
• Had Wales become an independent small nation within the EU in 1990, and performed on a par with other small nations, people in Wales could today be an average of 39% richer.
• Small is richer: some of Europe's smallest countries are among its most prosperous.
• The "small country bonus": smaller EU states grow faster and are frequently the fastest to recover from recession.
• Four key factors make small nations economically successful: openness to trade, social cohesion, adaptability and "the macro-politics of micro scale" – big government in a small country.
The Plaid MEP Jill Evans, who commissioned the report, said: "Plaid has a vision for a wealthier, more prosperous Wales. This exciting report reinforces Plaid's ongoing work in the field of economic development.
"The increasing progress towards independence of many small nations in the European Union, such as Catalonia, Flanders and Scotland, has put this issue firmly on the political agenda. The debate on Scottish independence, in particular, has huge implications for Wales. So it is essential that we have a real debate on how we build a successful and sustainable economy.
"The report sets out the potential of an independent Wales. It provides further evidence that we have nothing to fear from independence. Rather than being a hindrance to success, independence can be its catalyst."
Adam Price said: "This report shows quite clearly that size is no barrier to economic success, and in fact, that a small nations like Wales could benefit greatly from independence as many other small nations have done over the past decades."
The report looked at smaller countries including Austria, Denmark, Finland and Luxembourg to try to establish how Wales could have fared had it been independent over the last two decades.
"Opponents of independence and further devolution have often misused the current economic problems to suggest that small countries would struggle for survival in tough economic times," said Price.
It took into account the experiences of Ireland and Greece but concluded that on the whole small could be better. The report suggested that when "good times returned" the "flotilla" – Europe's smaller countries – could change course quicker than larger "super-tanker" nations that can be "too big to sail".
Price said: "Far from hampering a country's prosperity – being small can actually lead to greater economic success and greater prosperity. When it comes to charting the best economic course, small countries are the most adept and that is reflected in their wealth and wellbeing."