By Peter O’Neil OTTAWA — The British government risks a public backlash in Scotland if it tries to interfere with Scotland’s independence movement by imposing a Canada-style Clarity Act, a Scottish minister said here Wednesday.
“There’s one thing I can tell you about the Scottish people — they don’t like being told what to do by the United Kingdom government,” said Fiona Hyslop, cabinet secretary for culture and external affairs in the Scottish National Party government.
British Prime Minister David Cameron’s coalition government, according to recent media reports, is considering legislation modelled after the Canadian law passed in 2000 that would only permit Quebec secession if there’s a clear result on a clear referendum question.
Cameron, according to The Independent, is contemplating asking a straightforward referendum question — “do you wish to remain in the United Kingdom?” — in 2012 or 2013.
That would pre-empt Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s plans to seek an independence mandate in 2014 or 2015 with a three-pronged question that has been criticized as being misleading.
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But Hyslop, in Canada this week to promote Scotland as a destination for tourists and investors, predicted Wednesday that Cameron will not cave in to pressure from cabinet colleagues to impose the referendum.
“I think they will respect the rights of the Scottish people to decide,” Hyslop said in an interview.
She cited the smashing majority government victory for Salmond’s SNP in May, which left Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative parties decimated in the Edinburgh parliament.
She noted that both Cameron and his cabinet minister responsible for Scottish affairs, Michael Moore, have said publicly that they have no plans to interfere with Salmond’s plan to fulfil his mandate to hold a referendum in 2014 or 2015.
“I think that’s (imposing a referendum) not something that has much currency in Scotland,” she said. “It would also be extremely counterproductive for the Westminster government to do that, bearing in mind the huge mandate that the SNP government achieved at the elections in May.”
Hyslop also said the SNP believes that a referendum that results in a bare majority in favour of independence is sufficient to negotiate the nation’s way out of the United Kingdom.
The SNP has indicated it will give Scots three options — the status quo, “devolution max” (all powers except foreign affairs and defence) or full independence.
Salmond told a BBC interviewer Wednesday that he’s “certain” Scotland will achieve independence, but a poll in the Scottish Daily Mail last week indicated a slump in public support for the option even if the British government held the referendum.
The survey of 1,233 Scots conducted earlier this month asked: “If Westminster’s political parties decided to hold a referendum in Scotland on Scottish independence, how would you vote?”
Only 28% supported independence, while 53% were opposed. Just 2% said they’d boycott a referendum organized by the Cameron government.
The Scottish and Quebec nationalist movements have had close informal ties for decades, but Hyslop said there’s no alliance with the SNP government and the opposition Parti Quebecois.
“We’ve met Quebec politicians. I’ve also met politicians from all over the world,” said Hyslop, who was meeting Wednesday with Canadian MPs and senators who have launched a Canada-Scotland Friendship Group.
“We see our parallels more with the independence of Canada itself, and also the U.S. and former members of the Commonwealth, not one of whom wants to go back to being dependent on the U.K. government.”
Hyslop’s visit to Parliament Hill took place on St. Andrew’s Day, Scotland’s national day in honour of its patron saint. Her speech to MPs and senators, to be delivered Wednesday evening, was expected to note that five million Canadians claim Scottish ancestry.
Hyslop, according to a draft of her speech, was to say her government believes Scotland will “take its rightful place in the world, alongside our Commonwealth friends, including Canada.”