The message from the B.C. government seems as clear as the waters of English Bay: a green light from the Trudeau cabinet will not guarantee construction of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
Instead, B.C.’s conditions could still inflict many further months of delay.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might eventually have to decide whether federal power means anything at all. Would he step in and demand compliance with Ottawa’s authority over interprovincial trade?

An NDP victory in B.C. next May could throw the pipeline to the wolves for more months, or years.

It’s far from certain, given the militant opposition to Kinder Morgan on the vote-rich Lower Mainland, and a B.C. election coming May 9.
B.C. Environment Minister Mary Polak, in a statement, starkly sets out the terms: “Our government’s position has always been clear and consistent. We will only support new heavy oil pipelines in British Columbia if our five conditions have been met.”
Those include environmental safeguards, spill protection on land and sea, respect for First Nations’ rights and getting a “fair share” of the economic benefits.
“Meeting all five conditions will be a challenge,” Polak continues. “We set the bar high for a reason.
“We need to ensure B.C.’s concerns around the environment, First Nations’ participation and overall economic benefit are taken seriously. The responsibility for meeting the five conditions is complex and will take a great deal of effort from both industry and governments.
“A significant amount of work has already gone toward establishing and meeting the five conditions, but we are not yet in a position to consider support for any heavy oil pipeline in B.C.
“The government of Canada is expected to make its final decision before the end of the year, and we will continue to work with the proponent and all stakeholders to address B.C.’s needs.”
That work will go on before the cabinet ruling — and after.
The province cannot formally defy a federal cabinet approval for a project like this.
But it can withhold its political blessing. Asked if the pipeline could be built without provincial support — even after cabinet approval — a B.C. official said: “I don’t see how that would be possible.”
The Alberta government’s response to all this is muted. There’s no point in stirring up the coastal waters yet.
“We’ve seen that taking shortcuts on energy infrastructure projects leads to legal issues and delays, and so we don’t have a problem with B.C. following through on the government’s promises to the electorate,” says Cheryl Oates, Premier Rachel Notley’s communications boss.
“We will continue to work collaboratively with B.C. and the federal government on this project.”
Kinder Morgan Canada president Ian Anderson, speaking to the Herald’s Chris Varcoe last week, also sounded hopeful. He said the company could make an investment decision as early as next spring.
He finds “some light at the end of the tunnel and some parting of the dark clouds that we can make a positive decision and accomplish what we think is an important project.”
The trickiest of B.C.’s conditions — the province’s demand for a “fair share” of the economic take — is largely in the hands of Kinder Morgan.
Talks are going on now, Anderson says. Notley has also offered an oblique incentive; Alberta might buy B.C. electricity, if there’s demand for it. And there won’t be demand unless a tidewater pipeline boosts the economy.
The approaching B.C. election makes all this even more complicated. John Horgan, leader of the B.C. NDP, is a lot less friendly to Kinder Morgan than Premier Christy Clark’s Liberal government, which so far doesn’t seem very friendly at all.
An NDP victory next May could throw the pipeline to the wolves for more months, or years. Notley may be forced to quietly cheer for Clark. This conflict will test many cross-border NDP friendships and loyalties.
Polls in B.C. remain sharply split on Kinder Morgan, but support is still quite strong, especially in the Interior. Hostile reaction in the media heartland around Vancouver blurs the fact that many British Columbians support the project.
Albertans who want the pipeline can only hope Clark’s government will approve the project before next May, and then win the election.
Failing that, we’d have to count on Trudeau getting tough. That might be more likely in boxing than pipeline politics.